ID’s 2009 Tech Predictions
Wednesday, December 31, 2008 by Island Dog | Discussion: Personal Computing
It’s that time of the year again where people will start giving their predictions for what will hold for the tech industry in the new year. With the economy being in the state that it is, mostly everything I have read so far is pretty pessimistic, but putting politics aside, I think 2009 has potential to be a big rebound as far as tech goes.
With that being said, I will start with the most obvious one.
- Windows 7 arrives. Microsoft hasn’t been too forthcoming about when the next version of Windows will arrive, and we have heard dates going all the way to 2011. I think Windows 7 will arrive sometime this summer with a hype that we didn’t see with Vista. I haven’t gotten my hands on Windows 7 yet, but I am hearing some really great things about it so far. We are already getting a glimpse of how Windows 7 will operate, but what we haven’t heard much about is the gritty details such as pricing and versioning. I have written about before the need for Win7 to have a more family-friendly licensing, and to drop the numerous SKU’s for just one or two.
- Steve Jobs leave Apple. Apple shocked the tech community recently when they announced this years Macworld will be its last, and that Steve Jobs will not give the final keynote. Speculation and rumors are running abound about the reasons behind it, but that simple fact is that Jobs is on his way out. How this will affect Apple going forward is yet to be seen, but Apple’s stocks will certainly take a hit once this is announced. This certainly won’t mean the end for Apple, but will they continue on their current track with new leadership? I say yes.
- Online services takeover. Well “takeover” is a bit of a stretch, but 2009 will be the year when more and more services like “the cloud” launch. In 2008 we saw services like Google Documents become more usable, and saw others like Microsoft step their feet into the online office waters. Apple dove right in with MobileMe, which despite its rough launch, it has shown what “cloud” services can do for the average consumer. Just today I was reading more speculation that iWork will move towards online integration, but no confirmation as of yet. And of course we can’t forget Microsoft’s announcement of their Azure platform which has some tremendous potential.
- Next-gen consoles revealed. The next-gen consoles like the Xbox 360 are not so “next-gen” anymore, and this year we will get a peek at the next, “next-gen” consoles. We still won’t see the actual units ship until at least late 2010, but the hype machine won’t wait that long. Aside from the usual graphic improvements, blu-ray will once again be a big feature, along with more integration with home entertainment features.
- Social networks “slow down”. This year we seen social networks like Facebook, Friendfeed, and Twitter really take off. The popularity of these services spawned a ton of startup services, but towards the end of the year we have also seen many of them fade into oblivion. 2009 will bring a new wave of updates such as a “pro” version of Twitter, and these services will remain extremely popular, but the overall excitement and expansion of these networks will start to slow down.
Well those are my 2009 predictions, and I think most are pretty solid. Do you agree with these? Leave your comments and let me know.
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Reply #22 Thursday, January 1, 2009 6:17 PM
Not quite. Say what you want, but Nintendo's portable platforms have always been #1, even without pushing technology to the limits. Sure, we can list a gazillion alternatives that are superior and have even sold pretty well, but Nintendo has proven that their audeince is far larger than just the core gamers, and that casual gamers are not to be underestimated. The Wii proved that's true even for non-portable systems.
Maybe so, but I'm not commenting on their fans, and I never said what they create doesn't do a good job, [Hmm.. in theory, but on an actuarial basis, they aren't very user-friendly..] it's the consoles themselves..and I'll still buy their crap.. but it IS a dust magnet, I of all people should know, since I went through 7 DS Lites last year..
oh yeah GREAT stuff, the box dropped on my carpet.. soft carpet.. and shattered the battery pack, this happened to all of them.. broken before I even got a look-in, and their response, PAY A CRAP-LOAD to us, by registered mail, and we'll see if it's our fault and fix it.. 
<--- Yeah right.. and it you don't like their prognosis, which is ALWAYS 'It's NEVER OUR FAULT', and won't pay the high-priced fee for their screw up, they KEEP your machine..
add that, and the cost of registered mail and you can buy another DS Lite cheaper!
Nintendo know what they're doing.. indeed, they make thing's that are brittle and not meant to last and oh yes, BIG DUST MAGNETS.. and a screen intentionally made to royally stuff up, with the over-use of the touch screen ability and stylus. <-- a shame because I love this feature
They do a half assed job on purpose, to make more money.. everybody knows this.. they just aren't saying it... 
The games for this system are wicked.. I own many [Raving Rabbids 2 rocks!
] but I'm not knocking the games, just the frailty of their console[s].
Even the game store commented on the well-known fact that the DS Lite's battery pack is weak.
Psst.. Nintendo, you might want to re-think your casing, make it a little better, stronger than tissue paper at least
I will still buy the upgraded DUST MAGNET, only because I have to, I beta test, plus I love games and need that console... it doesn't mean I have to like it though.
Just a Note on screen protectors --> LMAO!!! Biggest joke on gamers ever
Nintendo, how about designing the thing so it doesn't NEED a screen protector Ohh... that's right, you'd be out of pocket if people's systems actually lasted longer
You did ok with the GBA/SP, why not make the DS out of that, it wasn't such a dust magnet.
Reply #23 Thursday, January 1, 2009 7:14 PM
I don't think the next-gen consoles will actually appear, but some will be at least semi-officially anounced. 
Reply #24 Thursday, January 1, 2009 8:04 PM
The Government will continue to churn out billions of dollars with no backing until they acheive 10,000% inflation and complete economic collapse, shortly thereafter, gangs will appear on the highways while humans hunt other humans for food.
Reply #25 Thursday, January 1, 2009 8:07 PM
Oh please.
That's not going to happen until 2012, at least.
Also, for what it's worth, I don't see how that qualifies as a tech prediction.
Reply #27 Thursday, January 1, 2009 9:43 PM
That's not going to happen until 2012, at least.
Also, for what it's worth, I don't see how that qualifies as a tech prediction.
There will be no tech!
Reply #28 Thursday, January 1, 2009 9:55 PM
Reply #29 Friday, January 2, 2009 1:28 AM
Quoting Sole Soul,
reply 25
Oh please.
That's not going to happen until 2012, at least.
Also, for what it's worth, I don't see how that qualifies as a tech prediction.
Global Communications will go down, while magnetic feedback pulses backtrack through the internet, whiping out the sum of human knowledge!
There will be no tech!
2012 will be like Y2K. After it, everybody will be like, "WTF was all that about?"
Aside from that, in 2009, I think people will finally start to see that Earth isn't warming because of us.
Reply #30 Friday, January 2, 2009 2:53 AM
January 19, 2038 3.14 AM
That's Unix end of time. 
It will roll over to negative integer, causing date shown to be in 1902 or so.
We have years to fix it, but it's found in tons of critical applications.
Reply #31 Friday, January 2, 2009 9:13 AM
Release of Snow Leopard - OS X 10.6!
Open CL tech!
New uber toy(s) from Apple!
2nd and 3rd Sins expansion!
Don't really care about the rest to be honest
Reply #32 Friday, January 2, 2009 9:44 AM
2012 will be like Y2K. After it, everybody will be like, "WTF was all that about?"
Aside from that, in 2009, I think people will finally start to see that Earth isn't warming because of us.
Well, the only reason Y2K turned out to be nothing was because we imported a bunch of tech guys from India to fix all our crap for us.
2009 will also be the year I start figuring out how to program graphics with C++ and DirectX... *glares at the evil MS Visual C++ program*
Reply #33 Friday, January 2, 2009 1:40 PM
And the release of Windows 7? I'm looking forward to it. It's still questionable whether 7 will really live up to the hype and whether it's a viable replacement for Vista and XP. I hope that Windows 7 will release only 64-bit OS's. Computers that have more than 4 GBs (which most are nowdays) require to run a 64-bit OS. (32-bit OS's only recognize up to 4GB of RAM, compared to 64-bit OS's that can use up to 128GB of RAM. [Correct me if i'm wrong.]) So it only makes sense for 7 to be a 64-bit only OS.
Reply #34 Monday, January 5, 2009 11:38 AM
Reply #35 Tuesday, January 6, 2009 8:51 AM
Correct Neil it is on time too!
Correct Brad! but ... PC gaming is about to take a leap forward into the future!
All in all the next few years have many great things brewing.
#1. IPV6 internet is coming!
Reply #36 Tuesday, January 6, 2009 9:52 AM
Steve Jobs might not be leaving apple after all... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28504079/
Reply #37 Tuesday, January 6, 2009 10:36 AM
Yeah, all of the doom and gloomers were predicting the worst, and it turns out he was just seeing a doc for a worrisome hormone imbalance. Amazing how much out of control speculation can get.
I'd like to add to the list DNSSEC or some other form of secure DNS. We would get so many benefits from such a system: Not just DNS, but email and other technologies could use the system to add greater security to themselves.
Reply #39 Wednesday, January 7, 2009 12:16 AM
When do you think the next-gen of consoles will be released? Last time I checked, both MS and Sony have yet to recover the billions of dollars they spent on the 360 and PS3...
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Reply #21 Thursday, January 1, 2009 5:48 PM
At the very least, it'll fix the biggest issues with Vista.
Hard to say exactly what that really means. Apple isn't really transparent about why exactly this stuff is happening.
Yeah - I'm not the biggest fan, but it'll likely happen in some form. I really do wish they don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, though - even if stuff goes online, I'd like the software turn a bit hybrid and still work offline if need be. I really don't like the idea of being totally useless if the Internet goes down.
Very true. When they first came out, they were really great - but the same thing that plagued them in the past will always continue to plague them: They're static machines. Technology moved on, and it doesn't even take a large PC anymore to outmuscle the 360.
Hard to say. They never realy excited me that much in the first place.
Not quite. Say what you want, but Nintendo's portable platforms have always been #1, even without pushing technology to the limits. Sure, we can list a gazillion alternatives that are superior and have even sold pretty well, but Nintendo has proven that their audeince is far larger than just the core gamers, and that casual gamers are not to be underestimated. The Wii proved that's true even for non-portable systems.
Agreed, and remember most 32 bit software runs fine on 64 bit OSes, so software isn't really going to be any sort of credible barrier for most people. With a lot of new computers coming standard with 64 bit Vista already, I'd say most people won't even notice that the move has taken place. It'll just happen as they buy new computers.
Perhaps, but in my opinion the jury is still out on that one. At least there is agreement on which format "won" right now. But you're right, downloads are getting more popular. If Sony doesn't do something big with Blu-Ray now, they could be in a world of hurt. The format war was a big mistake by far, no matter who won. Just fighting it that long was the biggest mistake, ever. A lot of people are either sticking with DVD or moving to downloads. They're voting with their wallets that they are not interested in going down that path again. Ever.
But then again, who knows? It wasn't like it was a total loss, and as I understand it's still a profitable product. I think that it's entirely possible that Microsoft could include support for it.
Nintendo is unlikely to make the switch, though. They've been pretty focused on using proprietary disk formats. It may be possible that some of the same technology may be used, but it won't be made compatible.