The Five Most Significant Tech Trends of 2007

Tuesday, January 1, 2008 by Draginol | Discussion: Personal Computing

  1. Apple is conquering the world
  2. Google vs. Microsoft Live
  3. DRM is losing ground
  4. PC Makers need to improve experience
  5. The Cloud is starting to take over

Last year was one of the most exciting years in tech I've ever seen. Not only did we see amazing new products come out such as some great new digital cameras from Canon and Nikon, but we also finally started seeing cell phones take usability more seriously, the launch of Windows Vista, cars starting to cater to techies in a big way and a lot more.

But were there any trends that we could see? If you'd asked me last year, I would have predicted that we'd be talking about Blu-Ray or HD-DVD as well as how next-generation consoles were taking over. But it turns out, last year saw some pretty unexpected trends begin to emerge.

Below are the 5 biggest trends we recognized last year as having far-reaching consequences.

Trend #1: Apple is conquering the world

A few years ago, Apple was a spent force. It took them until 2000 just to get a preemptively multitasking operating system on the market. Today, I could be convinced that Apple has a pretty decent shot of doing to Windows what Windows did to OS/2.  Apple has proven something that many companies have forgotten: execution matters. It's not who comes out with the most powerful gadget or even the most innovative product, it's who produces the product that does what it does the best. Pretty simple right? Apparently it's not since Apple is leaps and bounds above everyone else in understanding this concept.

Anyone who has used an iPhone can tell you that the iPhone isn't just a little bit better than other cell phones in terms of usability, it's massively better. The only thing that saved LG, Samsung and the rest last year was that the iPhone was exclusive to AT&T, was on the Edge Network, and didn't include GPS.  Imagine a scenario where the iPhone had 3G and GPS built in and was available from anyone and I think you would have been looking at total domination.

What's worse is that the cell phone makers still don't get it. The LG Voyager (which got a high rating at CNET surprisingly) is still awful compared to the iPhone in terms of usability.

Apple also released a new series of iPods.  The iPods weren't the first music players, but like the iPhone, they were so far superior to what else was out there that they took over. This year, I'd say that the iPod lead actually grew.  It makes one wonder just how clueless their competitors must be.  Spend some time with an iPod Touch and then wonder what the heck Microsoft was thinking with their latest Zune. 

Then you have the release of Leopard. It wasn't a perfectly smooth release but relative to Vista, it was a paradise. When people ask me whether they should get a Mac or a PC, it's getting a lot tougher to recommend the PC these days and I'm starting to wonder why I'm recommending a PC at this point.

At the rate things are going, one could imagine a world in which the Mac is the standard home computing platform, the iPhone is the standard mobile device for doing anything and everything one might realistically want to do, and AppleTV 2 (or whatever the next-gen one is) is how one deals with entertainment content in the home.

If you compete with Apple, you probably are afraid. But you're probably not afraid enough.

 

Trend #2: Google vs. Windows Live

The battle lines are drawn and right now only the geeks even care about these things. But as time goes on, these two services will start to matter to normal people too.

Here are the battle lines and philosophies:

Google is creating very rich and interesting web services that users can do everything from do spread sheets, blog, share images, etc.  It's all web based.

Windows Live is doing much the same thing except with more emphasis with desktop integration.

At this stage, I would say that Microsoft's philosophy is a bit better -- I don't want to use a website to do spread sheets. And Microsoft's organization is a bit better.  I find navigating the Google goodies to be more difficult.  Live is marginally better. Microsoft would be better off not copying off of Google so much.

But the battle for web-based user experience is something that's going to continue to grow, especially as the "cloud" takes over more (which we'll get to shortly).

image vs. image

And yet most people don't know this stuff exists. Which is probably a good thing as a lot of this stuff is not ready for prime time. 

Google still dominates in the search. Live Search still needs a lot of work. But the other tools in Live are pretty good. My biggest gripe is that they have their own distinct "look" to them that's kind of like Aero but...not Aero.  I'm sure the people who worked on Aero really appreciate having one of the teams go off in their own direction diluting the branding like that especially since it's only different for the sake of being different.

But there are some very interesting gems coming out of this battle.

For Windows Live they've got:

  • Live Messenger is pretty good (though Yahoo's new client blows it away)
  • Live Photo Gallery is an extremely nice and easy way to get your stuff onto the web (though they make it remarkably difficult to share these pictures).
  • Live Writer is very awesome. Just wish it had more options in formatting.
  • Live Search Maps is better in some ways than Google Earth.

On the other hand, Microsoft continues to not bother to make the most of the fact that 95% of the population has Windows on their desktop.  SkyDrive should install a drive in My Computer that works like a regular hard drive except puts its stuff onto sky drive. Maybe I just don't get Sky Drive but it's just not very useful right now.

image
Live Writer rocks!

For Google, you've got some really cool stuff too:

  • Google Desktop Search is still the best in my opinion and Google search is still light years ahead of anyone else.
  • Google Calendar is just awesome. Microsoft is starting to move forward on their own Live Calendar but it's just getting started. I'm really surprised Google hasn't created a Microsoft Project competitor. Imagine a Project.Google.com which integrated with Google Calendar to help groups coordinate better. I'm also surprised Microsoft hasn't done so either (Microsoft Project 2007 is still primitive).
  • GMail absolutely blows away Hotmail.  I mean seriously, Hotmail doesn't have auto-fill on addresses.  Ironically, Live Mail looks better than Gmail now. And Gmail has incredibly spam filtering.
  • Picasa is slightly better than Live Photo Gallery but it's hard to say since Live Photo Gallery's Windows app is nicer but with Picasa I can easily link to what I submit.

There's no doubt that both services are pretty good though. This is one area in which both competitors have sharp people on them.  I just can't quite understand Microsoft. I liked them better when they were bastards. The Microsoft that crushed OS/2 would have leverage the Windows platform a lot more. Live feels like it was written to appease Linux users or something.

 

Trend #3: DRM is losing ground

Admit it. You thought DRM was something you were going to just have to live with. I know I did.  I detest DRM beyond a minimal threshold (ironically, the DRM in iTunes doesn't bug me, it's largely transparent).  But this was the year where you could start to buy DRM-free music from both iTunes and Amazon.

I've written rants about DRM for years. The basic truth is that companies should be trying to prevent lost sales not end piracy. I don't like pirates. They're parasites. But some of the measures used to try to punish them are akin to using radical chemotherapy to get rid of tape worm. "Sure, you lost your hair and look like you're about to die, but we managed to cut down on the tape worms by 28%!"

DRM exists because non-technical executives think that putting draconian copy protection on their content will magically improve sales because it is complicated enough to keep them from pirating it.  The reality is, most people will buy something if they want it and its convenient.  If you make stealing even slightly more inconvenient than buying it, then you'll get the people who would have bought your products in the first place.  The pirates will still steal it but they weren't going to buy it in the first place.

This year it seems that increasing sales versus stopping all piracy finally began to click.  Most people are basically honest and if I download a song from iTunes or Amazon, I'm not going to deliberately share it with the world. Some will, but they would have done so anyway through other means.

 

Trend #4: PC Makers need to provide a better experience to compete

Picture of Gateway® One ZX190The Dells, HPs, Gateways, Toshibas and others of the world are probably (hopefully) looking at Apple and realizing that what happened with the iPhone in the cell phone market could very well begin to happen in the PC market.

Here's a question to ask yourself: If the iPhone had been available from every carrier, even with its limitations on 3G and GPS, what % of the market do you think it would have today?  Greater than say 5%?  If you said yes, that is the thing that PC makers need to be very concerned about because the PC experience right now is awful.

2007 was the year that the term "Craplets" started to become mainstream.  It was also the year Windows Vista was released which was supposed to improve the Windows experience.  And yet, Windows Vista shows that Microsoft still doesn't quite "get it".  Let me give you an example that tells the whole story: The Windows Sidebar, which is on by default, does not allow users to drag and drop short-cuts to it. You can only add "gadgets" of which there are no useful ones really out there.  When your default content includes a clock, you know that you're scraping for justification.

For the most part, Windows Vista does deliver a much better experience compared to XP. It was just released a bit too soon.

At the risk of saying "I told you so!" I wrote this article in August of 2006 "Microsoft: Push Vista Back!" in which I wrote:

What will happen if they ship Windows Vista if it comes out in 1Q2007? I predict it will be a disaster. Driver compatibility, rough edges in software working, weird and unpolished UI design, etc.  The acronymn UAC will come to haunt Microsoft and they will rue the day they didn't wait just a few more months to get driver compatibility together.

Microsoft isn't really the problem, it's the PC OEMs focus on bundling weird stuff that's poorly implemented.  PC makers do this because they generate money on what they preload.  But if they don't want to lose their lunch to Apple, they should make it a requirement that anything they include has to add value to the customer and improve the customer experience.  That means NO MORE SHAREWARE bundles or time out bundles or whatever.

PC makers also need to start looking to providing more-value add to their customers in terms of the experience. If Microsoft isn't able or willing to fill in some usability gap, then the PC maker should do so. 

Consider this: Remember the PCs that shipped with Windows XP in 2006? What were they like? Would you say they had a good experience?  Imagine if you were in charge, how would you have changed things? I bet a lot.  Of course, Apple is hoping the PC makers just continue to pre-load shareware and craplets and call it a day.

 

Trend #5: The Cloud is starting to take over

Most people still use their PCs as an independent machine that uses its Internet connection for web and email. But 2007 was the year that the cloud paradigm began to make its presence felt.

Basically the cloud is where our individual PC is no longer that important. Instead, our data and tool choices are important.  Google and Microsoft see this future pretty clearly which is why they're battling out. You could say they are battling it out for their share of the cloud.

But the trend is just starting. For the cloud to take over these 5 pieces have to be filled:

  1. Your data will have to be accessible anywhere that has a network connection. This is why Microsoft, Google, Yahoo, and countless others are battling for.
  2. Your private data (the data you don't feel comfortable putting on public servers) has to be seamlessly available to you anywhere too. Nobody has provided a solution to this yet. The big guys seem to think that most people will be willing to put their key files on computers they don't have direct access to which I don't think will happen any time soon.
  3. Your computing environment needs to be supremely portable. This is what U3 is doing.  Your apps and tools are put on a USB drive, you plug it in and you can then do on any computer what you would normally do on your home computer without having to install anything to a remote computer.
  4. Distributed computing needs to come into existence. That is, the more hardware you have rights on, the more your computing capability should scale. No one has bothered to do this for the masses yet. 
  5. PC virtualization needs to become mainstream.  Virtual PC and VMWare are both getting startling close to nailing this.  One can imagine a future in which your USB key using U3 tech simply carries around your virtual PC with it.  We just need USB keys with say 16 gig capacities which should happen in the next year or two.

But with items #1 and #3 starting to mature, the power users are already starting to jump into the cloud.

 

So there you go. The 5 most significant technology trends we saw for last year.  What they will mean for 2008 remains to be seen. But if the past is any predictor, and it's not, 2008 will be a wild ride.

First Previous Page 1 of 2 Next Last
Gideon MacLeish
Reply #1 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 12:28 AM
I have to question #1. Not because Apple doesn't put out a better product. They certainly do. But unless Apple is willing to separate the hardware from the software, I don't see them establishing market dominance.

I will not buy a Mac right now primarily for two reasons: Because PC's offer more upgrade possibility, and price. I'm not one to always shop for the cheapest, but I simply can't afford most of Apple's products. They could address both by releasing a standalone O/S that I could load onto a PC that I build.

I believe that 2008 may be the year that Linux finally breaks through. We saw the start, I believe, with the release of the $200 WalMart PC (as much as it KILLS me to say it, when you get access to WalMart's Borglike marketing, you've begun to make the mainstream), and I believe when we see some of the 2008 offerings for Linux, it will potentially capture some of the Vista defectors when SP1 isn't all they hoped for and more.
XX
Reply #2 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 2:13 AM
Dunno on #1 too. Linux may make a mark yet, although it may be a few years more.
kona0197
Reply #3 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 4:13 AM
Tech Trend #6 - Windows Vista is deemed a bad OS therefore more people buy XP!

Gideon - you know I work at Walmart right?

Great article Brad.
BoXXi
Reply #4 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 6:24 AM
People harp on about the iPhone being the new "Messiah" of cell phones, but I'm not sure that most people realise that it can't even record video pictures!! There's gonna be some mighty disappointed people on Christmas day when they get their new phone and then try to video the day's events.......Muwahaha......
And the still camera in the iPhone uses 5 year old technology. Sorry.... not impressed.
Buy a Nokia N95, it wipes the floor with iPhone in most departments except looks.
iPhone is a ferarri with a Fiat 500 engine.
nitey
Reply #5 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 8:51 AM
I happen to agree with those that doubt that Apple really has 'it' enough to make any significant in roads into the desktop market. I use both a Mac and a PC with Vista and frankly both work well enough. The biggest reason that people didn't fuss about the problems with Leopard was taht in a market of which Apple holds about 6-7% of total desktop sales, only about 20-30% of those people moved up to Leopard. If Apple had the same market share as Microsoft I believe that Leopard would have been bashed equally as much as Vista.

As to Vista, it was released to early, but I do believe that even if MS had held it for another few months it would have still would not have reviewed well. After 6 years, and many broke promises, MS sold us on the idea that Vista was the next big thing and it wasn't. Far too much was removed and it suffered from lack of direction from the start - mostly from trying to be far too many things. Vista is a good O/S (now with SP1 out) but it doesn't appear to people to work any better than XP. I believe that the next version of the O/S due in 2010 will be more sharply focused and will be hailed as the next great O/S. Much like XP was when it followed Win98Me (another unfocused O/S).

Also, most of the friends that I know are not that crazy about their iphones. It looks nice, it can wow people, but it's honestly not that great. My brother-in-law has used his since it first came out and tells me alot of the stuff is either not implimented well or doesn't work as well as the ads made it look. The phone didn't work with email very well until he used a hack to intergrate it with outlook. The fingerprints smuges drive him crazy. EDGE is slow, Safari isn't that good, the picture taking is a joke and has been mentioned no GPS or video. When you really get iphone owners to admit it (most spend a lot of time defending their purchase) they admit, that for the money that they paid and still have to pay - it's just not that good of a phone.

Apple is not going to conquer the world. They are innovative, I'll give them that, but they are really no better than MS in their delivery of systems or products.

JMO.
nitey
Reply #6 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 8:52 AM
I happen to agree with those that doubt that Apple really has 'it' enough to make any significant in roads into the desktop market. I use both a Mac and a PC with Vista and frankly both work well enough. The biggest reason that people didn't fuss about the problems with Leopard was taht in a market of which Apple holds about 6-7% of total desktop sales, only about 20-30% of those people moved up to Leopard. If Apple had the same market share as Microsoft I believe that Leopard would have been bashed equally as much as Vista.

As to Vista, it was released to early, but I do believe that even if MS had held it for another few months it would have still would not have reviewed well. After 6 years, and many broke promises, MS sold us on the idea that Vista was the next big thing and it wasn't. Far too much was removed and it suffered from lack of direction from the start - mostly from trying to be far too many things. Vista is a good O/S (now with SP1 out) but it doesn't appear to people to work any better than XP. I believe that the next version of the O/S due in 2010 will be more sharply focused and will be hailed as the next great O/S. Much like XP was when it followed Win98Me (another unfocused O/S).

Also, most of the friends that I know are not that crazy about their iphones. It looks nice, it can wow people, but it's honestly not that great. My brother-in-law has used his since it first came out and tells me alot of the stuff is either not implimented well or doesn't work as well as the ads made it look. The phone didn't work with email very well until he used a hack to intergrate it with outlook. The fingerprints smuges drive him crazy. EDGE is slow, Safari isn't that good, the picture taking is a joke and has been mentioned no GPS or video. When you really get iphone owners to admit it (most spend a lot of time defending their purchase) they admit, that for the money that they paid and still have to pay - it's just not that good of a phone.

Apple is not going to conquer the world. They are innovative, I'll give them that, but they are really no better than MS in their delivery of systems or products.

JMO.
Gideon MacLeish
Reply #7 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 9:17 AM
Gideon - you know I work at Walmart right?


No, I didn't.

They still have "borglike" marketing...lol!
Island Dog
Reply #8 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 10:28 AM
There's gonna be some mighty disappointed people on Christmas day when they get their new phone and then try to video the day's events.......Muwahaha......


I don't think most people care about taking grainy videos with their cell phones, I know I don't.  If I want high-quality videos than an HD camera is the way to go.

The N95 is a "nice" phone, but I will take my iPhone over it anyday.



darkhelmet_OG
Reply #9 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 11:57 AM
With the rise of Apple any chance we'll see SD make some software for OS/X?

It was funny to read over that and compare it to how much my use of computers has changed over the past year. For awhile I had linux installed on a flash drive and I could boot up on it on just about any computer, it wasn't very nice to have to reboot and wait though so I just started e-mailing documents to myself which really isn't very efficient but works for data access anywhere. I've been thinking how one could hack up the RDP protocol and make some really neat internet hosted applications, they could work on just about any OS, and the internet is becoming fast enough now to handle it.

Isn't Adobe going to release a web version of photoshop? I haven't payed much attention to it but it seems interesting and a good solution to piracy.
elvee
Reply #10 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 1:16 PM

What's worse is that the cell phone makers still don't get it. The LG Voyager (which got a high rating at CNET surprisingly) is still awful compared to the iPhone in terms of usability.

Being a Verizon Wireless customer the LG Voyager (dare I say it) is the best alternative to the iPhone.

 

DrJBHL
Reply #11 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 2:40 PM
The iPhone is great, BUT: No phone is worth $400 nor using AT&T.

JMHO
Leauki
Reply #12 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 2:44 PM
But unless Apple is willing to separate the hardware from the software, I don't see them establishing market dominance.


Without the non-separation of hardware and software Apple's products would be just as nice as Microsoft's, except Apple would have less money to develop new products.

In other words, Apple's major advantage and feature of their products is the combination of hardware and software. Yes, Mac OS X has better plug and play than Windows and all the controls work. But that's because Mac OS doesn't have to cover as much hardware as Windows.
jamespaulp
Reply #13 Tuesday, January 1, 2008 3:13 PM
Buy a Nokia N95, it wipes the floor with iPhone in most departments except looks.



The N95 is a "nice" phone, but I will take my iPhone over it anyday.


As someone who had the opportunity to play with both the phones, I have to agree with Island Dog. iPhone wins hands down in usability department. For most people that is more important than feature department where N95 is way ahead.

I don't think most people care about taking grainy videos with their cell phones, I know I don't. If I want high-quality videos than an HD camera is the way to go.


Youngsters seem to think otherwise. They just carry their cellphone around, takes pictures and videos all the time just for the fun of sharing. They usually are not willing to carry a video camera for that purpose. Not cool.
Dr Guy
Reply #14 Wednesday, January 2, 2008 8:18 AM

Yes, Mac OS X has better plug and play than Windows and all the controls work. But that's because Mac OS doesn't have to cover as much hardware as Windows.

Bingo!

lee3908870
Reply #15 Wednesday, January 2, 2008 7:19 PM
This is not quite on topic, however, the one thing I find that would be nice is if MS would do like Apple; that is offer Vista (or whatever) system with a home pack. My OS X Tiger can be used with up to five computers (for a small price) at home. I hate the idea that I have to buy a separate OS for both my desktop, and my laptop.

I have to agree with those who wrote about Leopard. My youngest son (35) is a mac freack, and to say the least he was upset with Leopard. I waited to find out what he thought of leopard before deciding not to buy.

Lee
Leauki
Reply #16 Thursday, January 3, 2008 5:33 AM
I have to agree with those who wrote about Leopard. My youngest son (35) is a mac freack, and to say the least he was upset with Leopard. I waited to find out what he thought of leopard before deciding not to buy.
Not sure what there is about Leopard that would make one decide not to buy. Do you have Classic applications? Do you depend on Xcode 2? Otherwise I could not find many problems with Leopard. But it is a lot faster!
Gideon MacLeish
Reply #17 Thursday, January 3, 2008 7:14 AM
In other words, Apple's major advantage and feature of their products is the combination of hardware and software. Yes, Mac OS X has better plug and play than Windows and all the controls work. But that's because Mac OS doesn't have to cover as much hardware as Windows.


I understand that, and that's fine. But it's also why I have no intention of making the switch.
Gideon MacLeish
Reply #18 Thursday, January 3, 2008 7:16 AM
This is not quite on topic, however, the one thing I find that would be nice is if MS would do like Apple; that is offer Vista (or whatever) system with a home pack.


What M$ should do, but will never do as long as they have market dominance, is offer the software for a certain price point, with one to three keys included (much as most A/V software has multiple keys), and then allow you to purchase extra keys at a substantial discount. Kinda like a budget VLK.
Dr Guy
Reply #19 Thursday, January 3, 2008 7:30 AM
but will never do as long as they have market dominance


Exactly! They gain nothing by offering it, and lose revenue.
Gideon MacLeish
Reply #20 Thursday, January 3, 2008 7:46 AM
They gain nothing by offering it, and lose revenue.


I disagree, Dr. Guy. With the increase of virtual machines and massive hard drives, it is not unforeseeable that a home could have 6-10 virtual environments in which they operate. The only thing holding it back is the cost of implementation; putting M$ operating systems on all of those machines is quite expensive.

Whether M$ fans want to acknowledge it or not, with the advent of Vista, the boys in Redmond have lost a lot of credibility. I would say that the majority opinion of "the man on the street" is rather anti-Vista, and tech opinions are mixed. More and more of the people I deal with are considering Macs because they have heard negative things about Vista (although the most negative comments, admittedly, come from people who have not TRIED Vista). Offering a multi-key solution will encourage people to try more home network configurations, and will vastly increase the number of Vista upgrades, pushing it to more computers. It would also reduce physical costs, as techs would not need to buy a separate boxed copy of Vista for every computer, but could simply purchase additional keys, which, essentially, cost nothing.

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